Fairfax County outpaces D.C. and the metro average in growth from abroad

Fairfax County is adding fewer people from abroad than it did a year ago, but still more than it did in 2022. The county's growth from immigration has come off a sharp peak without falling below where it started.

According to the Census Bureau's newest county estimates, Fairfax's net international migration fell 36.9% in the year that ended in June 2025, to 11,612 people. That is down from 18,407 people the year before, the county's high mark since 2021.

Set against 2022, though, the latest count is higher. In the year to June 2022, Fairfax gained 10,935 people this way, so the 2025 figure is up 6.2% over that span.

How big was the swing?

Measured against the county's size, Fairfax ended the latest year almost exactly where it was before the surge. Net international migration added 9.9 per 1,000 residents in the year to June 2025, compared with 9.6 per 1,000 residents in the year to June 2022.

The rise and fall in between followed the same path as the region as a whole. The county's rate climbed to its 2024 peak and then dropped back, as the metro's did.

How does Fairfax compare with the rest of the region?

Fairfax still draws newcomers from abroad faster than most of greater Washington. Its rate ranked third-highest among the DMV counties and the District in this comparison. The Washington metro as a whole stood at 6.9 per 1,000 residents.

Across the river, the District added 5.6 per 1,000 residents, well under Fairfax's pace. Both sat above the U.S. rate of 3.7 per 1,000 residents.

Fairfax also carries much of the region's total. The county accounted for just over a quarter of the metro's net international migration in the latest year.

The bigger difference is how each held up over time. The metro's net international migration fell 44% in the latest year, a steeper drop than Fairfax's. It also ended 24.7% below its 2022 level, while Fairfax ended above its own.

Even after that slide, greater Washington's rate stayed ahead of the Boston metro's, which came in at 6.1 per 1,000 residents.

Where does Fairfax's growth come from?

For Fairfax households, the arrivals from abroad are most of the story of why the county is still growing at all. Fairfax added 8,067 people between July 2024 and July 2025.

Births outnumbered deaths by 6,234 people, a smaller gain than the county got from international migration. Moves within the country pulled the other way: 9,816 people more people left Fairfax for other parts of the U.S. than moved in.

Without the net gain from abroad, that domestic outflow would have outweighed the county's births over deaths. Immigration is what kept Fairfax's population on the plus side.

Why did it drop, and what comes next?

Fairfax's decline came as the national number fell sharply. U.S. net international migration peaked in 2024 (census.gov) and declined in 2025 (census.gov).

The Census Bureau says the national drop was caused by both a decrease in immigration and an increase in emigration, people moving out of the United States (census.gov). A bureau official said the decline was the main reason for slower population growth, with births and deaths roughly stable (census.gov). U.S. population growth slowed significantly between July 2024 and July 2025 (census.gov).

The latest estimates year also spans periods of very different immigration policies for the United States (census.gov), so a single annual total blends conditions before and after the change. And each new release revises the full series, so these figures replace any earlier published counts for Fairfax (census.gov).

Nationally, the bureau projects net international migration to decline further in 2026 if current trends continue (census.gov). For a county where arrivals from abroad have been offsetting people moving away, that is the number to watch.

About the data

We used the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 population estimates, specifically the components of change (net international migration, net domestic migration and births minus deaths), for years ending June 30. Rates were computed relative to each July 1 population. We compared Fairfax County with the other DMV counties and the District, the Washington metro, the U.S. and the Boston metro, using only Vintage 2025 figures throughout.

• These are estimates, not counts, and the Census Bureau revises the full series back to 2020 with each new release.
• The figures measure net movement to and from abroad and cannot speak to immigration status, local enforcement policy or detainer requests.
• The county numbers do not separate how much of the change came from fewer arrivals versus more people leaving the country.

Net international migration: people moving into an area from abroad minus people leaving it for abroad, including U.S. citizens and noncitizens. Net domestic migration: people moving in from elsewhere in the U.S. minus people moving out to other parts of the U.S. Natural change: births minus deaths.

Sources

• U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program: Annual population estimates and components of change, District of Columbia, District of Columbia; Montgomery County and Prince George's County, Maryland; Arlington County, Fairfax County and Alexandria city, Virginia (Vintage 2025), latest period 2025, released March 26, 2026; retrieved Oct. 22, 2026. Data
• U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program: Annual population estimates and components of change, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, with metropolitan divisions and counties (Vintage 2025), latest period 2025, released March 26, 2026; retrieved Oct. 22, 2026. Data
• U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program: Annual population estimates and components of change, District of Columbia and the United States (Vintage 2025), latest period 2025, released Jan. 27, 2026; retrieved Oct. 22, 2026. Data
• U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program: Annual population estimates and components of change, 9 counties (Vintage 2025), latest period 2025, released March 26, 2026; retrieved Oct. 22, 2026. Data
• U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program: Annual population estimates and components of change, 4 metro areas (Vintage 2025), latest period 2025, released March 26, 2026; retrieved Oct. 22, 2026. Data